I suppose someone probably already posted this chart. I had never looked at the long-term Monero chart before:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/3QZ1D3nD-The-Monero-Bear-Market-Is-Over/
That is impressive. Monero has broken out of the down wedge, which is very technically bullish. But that doesn't mean it can't fall back first to the historic support at 0.0017 BTC. And if BTC falls to < $150 as I expect, then that could mean Monero declining significantly and still be in the bullish formation as Bitcoin makes its final bottom and we start a new bull market in crypto (I subscribe to the theory that BTC is still declining from 2013).
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/3QZ1D3nD-The-Monero-Bear-Market-Is-Over/
That is impressive. Monero has broken out of the down wedge, which is very technically bullish. But that doesn't mean it can't fall back first to the historic support at 0.0017 BTC. And if BTC falls to < $150 as I expect, then that could mean Monero declining significantly and still be in the bullish formation as Bitcoin makes its final bottom and we start a new bull market in crypto (I subscribe to the theory that BTC is still declining from 2013).
I do agree with the theory of a long term bear market in Bitcoin. I see this because of the following:
1) There is a widening chasm between the promise of Bitcoin, a digital and fungible currency that can be used by anyone in the world to pay anyone in the world without the need of an intermediary and the reality a digital non fungible currency that can in practice only be used as a settlement layer between the intermediaries Bitcoin was supposed to replace under the promise.
2) The macro economic factors identified by Dent and Armstrong, namely a 30s type deflationary depression. What Dent got wrong is he failed to take into account the impact of the massive quantitative easing or money printing by the central banks since 2008. This would make a strong fiat currency such as USD attractive.
In the scenario above one would expect an overall bear market in crypto currency; however just as was the case during the 1930s with stocks there will be exceptions that buck the overall trend. Identifying the latter is where the real long term opportunities lie. Monero could very easily buck the trend since objectively it is very well placed to become the promise of Bitcoin. What this would point to for Monero is very strong long term prospects combined with extremely high short to medium term volatility and risk. My personal position is almost exclusively a combination of CAD and XMR with no debt. A convertible fiat other than USD can make sense where a person's expenses are denominated in that currency.
Based on the logic of my prior post, if you are comparing your opportunity cost to US dollars, I think you take some short-term profits on XMR. If you are using BTC as your unit-of-account, then HODL Monero.
Simple.
Interesting. I now use BTC as my unit of account (hopefully at some point XMR). I've been debating whether or not to recoup my initial investment in XMR and just let the profits ride, id still have quite a bit. However im finding it difficult to do so. Seems like in the short term BTC & XMR are going in opposite directions. Think i will take that advice and continue to hodl all my moneroj for the time being
