So I'm a small-scale miner... averaging about 1.1 Th/s on this pool. Lately things have been really terrible. We're currently almost 24 hours between blocks... what's going on? I was thinking about switching pools, though I have no clue where to go. I thought about that new bcmonster or whatever it's called.
If you play with dice, statistically, you have a chanceof 6 to make 6.
But sometimes it can get you to play 20X without making a 6.
This is the same for finding block, it is a matter of chance. Normally we must find 6 blocks per day, or one every 4 hours. But sometimes we find 3 in less than an hour, other times one in a day.
On a pool of this size, the value begins to be stable, that is the monthly average. And yet it fluctuates a bit, +/- 10% is not abnormal. It's very difficult to know on short period if something is wrong.
Also you forgot to mention that the communication with the captain is the same as the pool luck but with huge difficulty. If something is wrong he will answer once in 10000 times. Good luck