NHL: Minnesota has won their last two games with Edmonton this year. Edmonton is the bottom team in the Western Conference of the NHL. Minnesota's Kuemper 2.28 GAA at home, Oilers Talbot outstanding 1.19 GAA streak over 5 recent games (with exception of Sharks game), but against Minnesota Talbot is 0-2 and 4.13 GAA. I am betting against Talbot playing in Minnesota, and I figure he will fail to win in Minnesota yet again if not because his performance, because of his team. Betting 0.00155 BTC on the Minnesota Wild @1.561 odds:
https://nitrogensports.eu/betslip/8b5c759MDNLOGF2dXJtUlRZQ3c3cGtMTW9Sdz09/r/595422/http://www.flashscore.com/match/jaUDZf6l/#match-summary*
Minnesota lost a close 1-2 game. Allowing only 2 goals is a great job by Kuemper. Minnesota and the Devils had about even shots (30-25), and about even blocked shots (15-18). Minnesota dominated faceoffs (40-15). Minnesota only committed 2 penalties to the Devil's 4, but Minnesota went 0-4 on the power play. The game was tied until about 7 minutes left when the Devils actually won a faceoff which quickly turned into a 2v2 iso into a good shot beating the goalie. Minnesota had a power play directly after but their offense was apparently asleep tonight. Ultimately their offense failed to click against a team that is not very good, if you look at their 5v5 stats the Oilers are 3rd from the bottom:
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/teamstats.php?db=201516&sit=5v5&disp=1&sortdir=DESC&sort=GFPCTSo what other reasons are there for Minnesota losing aside from simply being outscored? I'm not sure. I need to think about what affects the outcome of a hockey game. I don't know the players, so I don't know if the lineups who started are better or worse than any other day. If anyone is unhealthy or injured I just did not know. I know that Minnesota is barely out of a playoff spot, and they do have motivation to win games to get into that spot. I'm having trouble understanding this result still. I guess NHL hockey teams are close to each other in overall skill, and I suppose that any team can beat another on any night. That's almost giving in though and saying oh it's just random results, it's the way the puck bounces, roulette on ice... scratch that jazz.
How often do NHL teams win this year? (Warning, this is painful to read, was just trying to put down my thought process, skip to bold for conclusion.) So far this season home teams win 42% of the time, draws happen 23% of the time, and away teams win 35% of the time. Right now the best record is the Washington Capitals who are 49-18, so they win 73% of the time. The bottom of the standings is the Winnipeg Jets at 27-40, so they win 40% of the time. Tonight's bet Wild-Oilers, what are their records? Wild are 31-37, so they win 48% of the time. Oliers are 27-43, so they win 38.5% of the time... and these stats are including overtime. Let's look at regulation time: Minnesota is 29-27 in regulation--(win 42.6%), and have 12 draws (17% of the time) (lose 40.4%). Oilers are 16-36 in regulation--(win 22%), and have 18 draws (25% of the time) (lose 53%).
The prematch odds on the game were Wild @1.92, Draw @3.97, Oilers @3.74. The overround is 2.13% so implied probabilities for regulation time are: Wild (49.49%), Draw (26.03%), Oilers (24.48%). The implied odds are very similar to their season averages. It seems that to take the Draw and Oilers there is a significantly better chance of this happening according to their season averages: as we looked up above,
Wild win in regulation 42.6% of the time, so the draw and opposing team win 57.4% of the time. The implied chance of draw and Oilers is 50.11% which is 7.29% less likely than the season average (57.4%). If the current season average is truly an accurate indicator of Minnesota's performance then there's a +7.29% chance of Draw and Oilers occurring that is not accounted for correctly.
Draw and Oilers has value as a bet because there's a greater chance of it occurring (according to the season average) than the sportsbook odds suggest... possibly we should have bet that instead!
Nhl wins info from
http://www.betexplorer.com/hockey/usa/nhl/profit (-0.0085 BTC)