Re: [30 PH] ** 5x AVALON6 GIVEAWAY ** Kano CKPool (kano.is) [0.9% PPLNS] US,DE,SG

Quote from: oblvnxknight on March 12, 2016, 01:08:36 AM

Quote from: gnu123 on March 12, 2016, 01:03:27 AM

423 but last weeks still looks very good.

How long can a block go ? what is possible ? 666,666 was possible but how much longer over that ?

Theoretically it is possible for the pool to never solve another block. Just highly unlikely

I think BTCGuild once got one around 1200% Tongue

Here's the CDF stats for percentages up to 1000% (with a few extras thrown in)

Code:

0.39346934028737 50.000% 1 in 1.6
0.63212055882856 100.000% 1 in 2.7
0.77686983985157 150.000% 1 in 4.5
0.86466471676339 200.000% 1 in 7.4
0.91791500137610 250.000% 1 in 12.2
0.93607213879329 275.000% 1 in 15.6
0.95021293163214 300.000% 1 in 20.1
0.96980261657768 350.000% 1 in 33.1
0.98168436111127 400.000% 1 in 54.6
0.99326205300091 500.000% 1 in 148.4
0.99752124782333 600.000% 1 in 403.4
0.99872735771441 666.666% 1 in 785.8
0.99908811803445 700.000% 1 in 1096.6
0.99966453737210 800.000% 1 in 2981.0
0.99987659019591 900.000% 1 in 8103.1
0.99995460007024 1000.000% 1 in 22026.5

So e.g. 100% 1 in 2.7 - 0.63 means that roughly you'd expect, on average, 37% of blocks to be over 100% and 63% to be under 100%
or ... 1 in 2.7 blocks to be over 100%

Of course with numbers like 500% - 1 in ~148 - you'd need lots of multiples of 148 blocks to expect to be close to the expected value.
i.e. as the 1 in X gets larger, the sample size (block count) needs to be much higher to assume anything about current results.

Edit: this last bit, sample size, is related to the confidence interval.