Sure, theoretically, but I dont like to just assume that the theory is precisely followed by reality.
My concern is with the practical. When did the ASIC's come out? That is a nonlinear increase in hashrate per amount of capital.
Yes I know the difficulty adjusts, but that is every 2016 blocks, there is a window of time where a technical leap increases the chance of larger reorg, but as time passes I think this chance is less and less.
Your analysis is bogus. Your are mistaking correlation with causation.
The long term changes in the orphan rates are caused not by changes in hash rate but by changes in the number and connectivity of the mining pools. The number of pools decreased and the connectivity of the remaining pools improved. In particular Matt Corallo's Relay Network caused decrease in the orphan races.
The probability of reorgs probably going to increase in the future due to the bugs in the competing implementations, due to DDoS attacks on the mining pool's infrastructure and due to Matt Corallo finally abandoning the maintenance of his Relay Network.
The difficulty increase is just an innocent bystander.
Why are you always using such harsh words? Maybe I am an idiot and you are super genius that is always right about everything.
I specifically limited my question to issues unrelated to software versions. just trying to understand things one piece at a time.
Now monsterer is saying it is always the same, you say it is probably going to increase. But I agree with you about the non PoW factors most likely dominating and since I am always wrong, does that mean you are wrong too?