Looking into the future, events almost never play out the way they think we will. Sometimes things turn out better, sometimes worse, but often they play out in unexpected ways.
Totally subscribe that. Everytime somebody does a prediction, I know automatically is cancelled to happen. The more people predicting something, the more the reality blends into unexpected outputs.
Bubbles always happen when nobody expect them.
The overexpected halving x2 price won´t happen. You can mark my words. It would be or way more north than 800$/BTC or 400 stagnated and/or sunk. I would say the most improbable mix of both.
The block halfing in btc is irrelevant given the trading volumes vs. the amount the emission is cut. After all, the supply of btc gets cut by like 1800 btc a day.