Of course the price will be higher as a result of the halving than if there never was going to be one. However it is impossible to know what the price would be right now if there was no halving planned.

Perhaps the price would have been $250 now. I.e.- the price rise has already happened.

Perhaps the price would have been $410 now - in which case the price rise has yet to come.

There is no way to know. Certainly, it is ridiculous to expect a price rise right around the halving. I would actually think a price drop is more likely, as people dump their coins when a hoped for rise doesn't materialise. I believe this happened to oil prices during the start of Gulf War2- everybody expected oil prices to go up, they didn't, people dumped their holdings as a result, then price went down.