I'm trying to get at the underlying fundamentals of BTC, which nobody seems to want to approach b/c they feel it's an attack on BTC, which it is not, I think we can all benefit from fundamentals.
I don't think it's an attack on Bitcoin.
I'm not sure I agree difficulty is going to increase by 100x in two months. I do think it's going to increase a lot though.
I dunno. Look at the current growth rate of computing power, last I checked it went from 4 percent growth rate per day to 8 percent per day. PER DAY! And as profit margins increase due to price increase, more people are going to join. I assume a LINEAR growth rate for my calcs. I think 87x in 2 months is conservative. BTC is blowing up. It was on NPR yesterday or the day before. Once it hits CNBC . . . XD who knows? I mean what's the pop of BTC users now? Who knows? 6.34mil BTC in the econ. What's the average wallet size? Any stats on that? I'll guess 50 BTC, maybe? So we have about 100k users of BTC. I mean, this growth rate can easily keep going, and even accelerate for a while, which means a difficulty increase of at least 75 percent every round.
Those are the assumptions I used in my calcs when getting there. I know it's not perfect, but I think it's a good conservative estimate.