I would suggest taking a stop back and looking at the volume levels in the weekly chart. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc both in terms of XMR and the XBT. The volume numbers since February 2016 are consistently way higher by approximately a factor of 4 than the historical levels going back to 2014. This is indicative of a fundamental change in over the last two months.