All alts are going to get slaughtered during the BTC halving pump.
What is your view on what it will mean for BTC and alts if there is no (big) halving pump?
However unlike that might be, please consider the hypothetical. I'm interested in your view.
If I may, I've also been thinking about this for quite some time.
If there is no considerable price increase within the next few months, chances are that everything since the 152$ low in january '15 has been a very long correction within the larger bearish trend. In this scenario BTC would, at least, test the above mentioned low, having good chances of going into the double digits. In this case I would assume that alts would do what they do most of their time, which is to lose value against bitcoin, leading to lower lows.
Actually, from an Elliott Wave point of view, this scenario could be viable even in the case of a big BTC pump, but this analysis would be better suited then.
For XMR, this is what I currently see:
http://i.imgur.com/dV1pCRh.pngThere are 2 possibilities in my chart:
Red means that the action since the .00422 top is just another 4th wave correction, which should stop somewhere between .003 and .0026, before going back up for another top somewhere close to .005. This has support from the hidden bull divergences both on the AO and on RSI, as showed by the black arrows in the indicator section.
Blue means that the impulse has finished and the price is ready to heavily correct. Supporting this is the evident decrease in strength on the latest tops, with compounding divs both on the RSI and AO. Also, what worries me is the increase in selling volume on this latest move down, which suggests that a change of trend is possible (this usually happens slowly and then picks up momentum). This scenario would be in line with a BTC price increase in the next few days, as people sell XMR to "be" part of the BTC rally.
