There's no doubt I made a bad trade, but that really isn't the issue. Trying to break the trend line so you can buy at 250k is the issue. I'm just tired of wasting time on TA in markets that move according to the greed of a small number of individuals. So yeah, even if it doesn't go to 299k I'm pretty close to taking my profits while I still have them. Forex was more complicated because of how much has to be considered in the fundamentals, but at least when things happen you can figure out why and the answer isn't "because someone put up a huge buy/sell wall".
I'm by no means a TA trader, but I do include some technical elements in determining specific entry/exit points. A couple of observations:
1) I think this is true everywhere, but especially in crypto, technicals can easily be dwarfed in importance by specific events.
2) Because crypto markets are so thin and easily manipulated (yeah, I said it, and meant it, although not in exactly the same sense that you might think), in my view, crypto frequently overshoots the lines I've drawn. In other words, if I'm looking to exit a position at .0039 based on my normal analysis, I might make it .003975 instead. If I'm looking to buy on the way down at .00299, I might make that .00285.
3) When I say "analysis" above, that doesn't mean anything CLOSE to what I mean when I say "analysis" when I'm talking about, say, stock in CIT. For a living, I do valuation in closely-held businesses. When we're talking about crypto, you don't have earnings (GAAP or normalized), capex requirements, working capital adjustments, and all the other things that would make up a discounted cash flow analysis.