ur assuming a pool cannot made a funky segwit without 95%.. if it was impossible.. then that blows apart your whole argument about backward compatibility accepting segwit.
so lets assume a pool got the code on day one and made a funky tx, added it to a block before any of the other pools upgraded. they would treat it as a valid block with a funky tx that they just blindly pass on.
EG lets say segwit is not publicly released for 2 weeks. but a pool grabbed the code from testnet today and made loads of transactions in their pools paying themselves. knowing they have 2 weeks of never being checked
hash power doesnt even come into the argument
Clearly you don't know how segwit works. A segwit output is understood by old nodes as an anyonecanspend outputs. Spending a segwit output has a blank script sig and this is valid because the stack is not 0. So if anyone were to create a segwit transaction now, anyone could spend from the output. Segwit does not allow people to spend from normal p2pkh or p2sh outputs in a special way, they still have to spend from them in the old way. The change of segwit is the new output types and spending from those output types requires an empty script sig and a witness. I suggest that you read the BIPs for the full technical description of segwit and you should really understand how it works. I linked them in the bottom of the blog post.
What do you think about the using of segwit?
Let me explain.
Today almost nobody cares about the transaction size and the fees.
What will force the users like casino, exchanges, doublers, etc to abadon their currens software which accepts p2pkh addresses and move to segwit addresses?
The fees are lower. I'm pretty sure a lot of people care about the fees, especially if you are making many transactions. Those fees do add up. Since the size of the transaction that goes towards the block size count is less, the fees will thus be lower and that incentivises people to use segwit.