Anyone ever counted how many "facebook killers" are out there? Tsu.co is the last one I heard of.
And what about Diaspora, if we are talking about decentralized social networks? Didn't work out either. The name sucked anyway.
The problem all this "faceook killers" have is the same problem sodas have that are trying to compete with Coca-Cola. Or operating systems that are trying to compete with existing ones. Or well you get the gist. But it's ten times worse, because the main premise of social networks is, that they need to be popular; that is their function.
It's like trying to sell a telephone book, but you are missing half of the numbers, or selling a map, but you are missing half the street names. Even if you would try to sell it at 1/3 the price and it is printed on real nice paper, nobody would buy it.
And what about Diaspora, if we are talking about decentralized social networks? Didn't work out either. The name sucked anyway.
The problem all this "faceook killers" have is the same problem sodas have that are trying to compete with Coca-Cola. Or operating systems that are trying to compete with existing ones. Or well you get the gist. But it's ten times worse, because the main premise of social networks is, that they need to be popular; that is their function.
It's like trying to sell a telephone book, but you are missing half of the numbers, or selling a map, but you are missing half the street names. Even if you would try to sell it at 1/3 the price and it is printed on real nice paper, nobody would buy it.
This make no sense, it can be deducted from "that they need to be popular" that facebook, twitter, instagram, etc started with userbase of millions and not a few people? this is completly wrong, you need to gain popularity thanks to diversification in this market.
Hm. Diversification is a good point. The thing about twitter, instagram, tumblr and so on is, that none of them was supposed to be a "facebook killer", but filled it's own niche. Calling something "Facebook killer" implies that it is trying to occupy the same space as facebook, which is going to be hard as balls. I don't think it is impossible (wasn't facebook kind of a "Myspace Killer"?), but highly improbable.
This is the issue we are facing here with every coin, including Bitcoin. there probability of being used by a broad population is very low, but as bitcoin showed and still showing, as times passe the latter probability increase.
Don't forget that we are speaking about a disruptive innovation here, that is better in all ways that what we currently use. Thus, we may be in the destructive creation process described by schumpeter, and the user increase will follow the S-curve of innovation diffusion:
