If the price is guaranteed to rise significantly after the halving, why aren't you buying as many coins as you can now
How do you know he's not?
Why wouldn't the smart money buy up all the cheap coins now, up to the post-halving price, and therefore pricing in the halving jump in advance?
The answer would be there is not enough 'smart' money playing in this market, relative to the amount of 'dumb' money that incorrectly doubts r0ach's theory.
I don't really agree with this, but the argument can be made.