My scenario for bitcoin price on the long term: ↗
My scenario for bitcoin price after the halving: ➘
A lot of recent buyers bought BTC just because they read on forums, crypto-medias that the price is going to rise very fast to the moon the day of the halving, or the day after... When they will realize it's not true, they will sell because they don't believe in the potential of bitcoin, like long term holders, they are just speculators. No increase, no profit, no reason to hold.
In addition, I think a lot of people in the bitcoin community are really frustrated with the problems of scalability, and the central planning by Blockstream: as I understand this part of the community thinks bitcoin is not anymore the cryptocurrency envisioned by his creator Satoshi Nakamoto and that core devs are working for the blockstream company instead of working in the interest of bitcoin users (we don't care if it is true or not, because it's not the topic here). This part of the community which is feeling betrayed could have sold their bitcoins 3 or 6 months ago, (like Mike Hearn did) but guess what: they are also waiting for the halving, in the little hope of a slight price increase and better conditions to sell.