BTC/USD is the wildcard.... almost impossible to predict.

There's also a lot of fucking bullshit in this thread right now.

Realistically the BTC/USD triangle should break within the next 5-7 days... that aside, the BTC halving is surely going to have an effect on alt market confidence on the interim regardless.

In the meantime, watch for the 50% retracement at around 0.0025. If that holds, then it should be a useful floor. If it breaks, all bets are off.

It's worth also mentioning that the latency period between a BTC spike and an altcoin spike is likely to be significantly shorter this time around. If BTC/USD spikes and XMR/USD remains constant (or falls) then certainly XMR/BTC will fall somewhat, but it should be expected that as soon as BTC/USD reaches its first peak then you'll immediately start to see profits flowing back into alts again, of which ETH and XMR will be the prime beneficiaries. Such episodic charities will surely only increase with every subsequent BTC/USD peak.

Then of course, there is the GUI, RingCT, Trezor support... all of which will act as counterpoint to any BTC increase.

So in conclusion: Keep an eye on the fib levels, keep an eye on BTC and BTC/USD, and keep an eye on Monero fundamentals.

Good luck!