Longer term, the probability of negative scenarios is larger than that of the positive
I disagree.
Monero has a 74% chance of succeeding. You can hang your Kelly hat on that!
74%? how can you say 74? why not 76?
LOl it is just a wild guess. Not based on any solid information. I like the fact that monero is here for a long time sure.
But there is no guarantee it will succeed.