The probability of a block being solved after 10 minutes: 50%, or 1/2
I might be doing something wrong, but it seems my data shows that 65% of block have been solved in less than 10 minutes. The difference seems a bit too large to be explained by our "faster mining", no?
No, the probability after 10 minutes at constant hashrate would approach, IIRC, 1 - exp(-1), not 50%. The
average time would be 10 minutes, but not the
median as 50% would imply. The long tail at the high end pulls the average above the median.
1-exp(-1) is c. 63%, a little less than your number, as one would expect given the history of increasing network speed.
Yep. Isn't it nice when empirical data matches up with the mathematical model so nicely? It might not be a big deal for most, but it never fails to make me feel deeply content.
Thanks for chipping in John and thanks again for bitcoin-abe.