Post
Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
smooth
on 13/04/2016, 19:00:28 UTC
Yep.  Still going for pretty damn accurate summary.

So it looks to me like XMR has bottomed.  I could be way off but this is a lot of volume compared to what I remember XMR being several months ago (500K).  Also this is really going to be the last several months that Monero has reasonable emissions in my opinion.

At some point it feels like Monero has to go past Dash.  The only thing I can really come up with is that the artificial controls for the Dash emission combined with the super high XMR inflation rate early on has really skewed with the market caps on both.  I feel like it's pretty safe to assume that Monero jumps past Dash this year.  After that I don't know.

In terms of price, once one unwinds the price and supply effects of the masternode interest scheme (possibly combined with the effects of concentrated illiquid holdings), the two are very close to parity. In terms of equivalently-adjusted market cap, XMR's is roughly 1.5 times higher. That is consistent with the comparison you get if you use other objective coin evaluation metrics independent of market cap.

I'll leave how I derived these numbers as an exercise to the reader for now with the hint that it is almost entirely objective.