the halving is a non-event with respect to price, or at most it is an event of trivial proportion. There is nothing to price in or not price in.
The halving halves the supply of new coins from 3600 coins per day to 1800 coins per day.
If we take a simplistic view that there is a steady demand of 3600 coins per day at the current price then it is safe to assume that suddenly halving the supply while not changing the demand will cause an increase in price.
The problem with this is that everyone already knows that the supply is about to halve, and so some people will already have been acting upon that knowledge.
there is a fallacy in this that assume that the dumped coin are equal to the total coins produced, what if they are only dumping 900 coins per day, which is in fact equal to their consumption since the ratio is 4:1 right now between consumption and earning?
this will lead us to the fact that with the halving the dumping will change only by 450 coins per day, which is nothing for the market