Anonymint, you are trying way too hard to get Bitcoin to fit some Armstrong gold forecast when the two have no correlation...

The halving is not some insignificant event.  It dwarfs any tiny change in interest rates or other variables.  There is also the fact that Bitcoin would be seen by some as a failure if the halving was unable to produce any increase in price, so vested interests (me being one of them) will engineer it to prevent that from happening, hence why you already see a $25 price increase.  What is sustainable is unknown, and will only be known a month or two afterwards, but the price will be raised to find out.