If it hasn't reached $500 before the halving it will surely pop over $500 afterwards. It may not stay there long, but the hype will push it over for a while.
Yeah that's true, it's two things, the effect of the speculation and the effect of the halving, the effect of speculation is what probably happening now, everyone wants to hold bitcoin, so probably it will take the price higher, but if it won't for sure the effect of the halving will.. Just don't know til when it will sustain at higher price..