Micon, I'll bet 20 BTC 1:1 that BFL delivers a working ASIC product to multiple end customers (i.e., people who are able to post pictures or other proof of their ASICs running) by the end of 2013.
Let's just use the same thing I'm betting on with mrb:
Statement
Butterfly Labs ASIC is real and will achieve 350+ Mhash/Joule by June 30, 2013
Details
At least one ASIC-based Butterfly Labs product will demonstrate 350 Mhash/Joule or more, at stock frequency/voltage, at room temperature, for a sustained period of time of at least 60 minutes, with appropriate current-measuring equipment on the device's power input(s). Power consumption shall be measured by adding up current from all the device's DC inputs (12V jack, USB cable, etc.) It will not be measured "at the wall". The purpose of this bet is to avoid wildly varying efficiencies of power adapters and computer hosts. This bet applies to all ASIC-based products that Butterfly Labs will deliver to the general public. This includes the "SuperComputer" family (Jalapeno, Single SC, Mini Rig SC), as well as possibly any unannounced product that the company will be shipping by June 30, 2013.
The legitimacy of the ASIC-based Butterfly Labs product(s) will be established as follow: the equipment must be reported to have been received by 10+ good standing forum members, of which:
- 3 must have each personally measured the Mhash/Joule of the devices
- the other 7 may not have necessarily measured the Mhash/Joule, but must have provided reports of having received working devices that seem to validate the existence and plausibility of the devices belonging to the above 3
These 10 good standing forum members do not necessarily need to report on the same product (eg. 10 Single SC). It may be a mix of products (eg. 6 reporting on Jalapeno units, plus 3 reporting on Single SC units).
Examples
This statement is true if, for example, the Single SC achieves 60 Ghash/s at 171 Watt or less (60000/171 = 351 Mhash/Joule) as measured with a clamp meter on its 12V DC input and 5V (USB) input.
This statement is false if all Butterfly Labs products fail to achieve 350 Mhash/Joule, or if Butterfly Labs fails to deliver any product at all.
Positions
Micon disagrees with the statement.
SgtSpike agrees with the statement.