So we may be nearing a critical point (no pun intended) where the bull market either 1) accelerates (steeper trend), 2) jumps up to a higher trend-line 3) drops to a lower trend-line or 4) ends.
So TA tells us that at some point the price will either go up, go down, or stay the same. Very insightful.
Well this is pretty much what all TA does unless you also add fundamental analysis to it, because technical analysis without the fundamentals is pretty useless in my book, you just can't live off making lines in a graph without having into account the context of the situation, and the situation is as positive as it can get for Bitcoin right now, so the general consensus is a bullish one, what we are seeing is yet another correction, general trend is obviously UP.
I kinda feel people expect too much from TA (and analysis in general). It's analysis, nothing more, nothing less. It's like that Eisenhower comment about planning for battle - in the heat of battle the plans are useless, but planning is still indispensable. Planning helps us prepare for what may happen; analysis helps us understand what has happened (and perhaps what is happening and what may happen), but it can't do anything more. With a bit of TA I'm still blind - but less blind than I'd be with no TA.
Totally agree about fundamental analysis, and I'd add that TA is decreasingly useful as the time-frame increases (good for short term, bad for long term). Fundamental analysis tends to be the reverse - short-term changes in a fundamental (usage/adoption, say) aren't that helpful, the data is too noisy.
I saw someone comment about the bear market having ended, which prompted some derision ("of course it's over, November 2015" etc). But IMO they're right - we were in a bear market for some time, late last year was the first time we saw a significant rise, and what we've seen since has shown it wasn't just a dead-cat bounce. I believe this is the early days of a new bull trend. Today's drop be damned.
@Razick, I'm a hodler mostly (with a bit of playing at being a trader, mostly options, for fun and... not profit). I use TA mostly to help me understand what's going on, rather than helping me to decide when to open/close positions. I'd agree about the triangle pattern you saw, except I believe we've reached the end of it, and the rise over the last week or so is what's replaced it.
I see your point (chart below). Would that mean that the green line would continue to be the support and the red line would be the new resistance?
