If it hasn't reached $500 before the halving it will surely pop over $500 afterwards. It may not stay there long, but the hype will push it over for a while.
We still have around 3 months before the block halving takes place, so there is plenty of time to build up enough support to get the price over $500.
Even we have a time to build a walls at the price $499 it's not easy to try push up the price if all trader try to dropping a price as deep as they can.