Post
Topic
Board Altcoin Discussion
Re: The bottom will drop out of the alt market soon
by
r0ach
on 29/04/2016, 00:31:51 UTC
Indeed this is what is predicted for 2017 to 2020ish. But first there will be an initial asset-wide reaction to a global liquidity squeeze when the interest rates change direction. Then the capital flight movement (from the liquidity crisis affected economies) leads to a concentration in USD, US stocks, Bitcoin, and gold and other tangible private assets will upward spiral (positive feedback loop effect) into to a bubble stampede into them. Thus the V bottom slingshot prediction.

Bitcoin is a (perceived) high risk, high reward, emerging market.  The people who are investing in Bitcoin don't care about some miniscule change in interest rates because they're chasing the high risk, high reward market anyway.  If it wasn't Bitcoin, it would be buying land next to a volcano or something, NOT a bank.  Interest rates do not matter for Bitcoin.  You might be able to draw some tiny correlation, but nothing big enough to matter.  

Gold, on the other hand, the market cap is already assumed to be somewhat maxed out, so things like interest rates actually do matter for that market while being meaningless for Bitcoin.  Any type of new development announcement, the halving, ETF acceptance, etc, completely dwarfs whatever interest rates are doing.