Even though EVs like the Tesla Model S and Nissan LEAF are mature product offerings that fit into a lot of peoples' lifestyles, we're still in that 2.5% "innovator" phase of the product adoption curve.  I think when we hit the latter phase of the early adopters phase that we'll see a noticeable downward pressure in oil sales from EVs.  When will we get to that point? Around 2019 is my opinion.