Everyone knows the simple and clear way to establish a claim to being Satoshi is to publically publish a digital signature proving you hold the private key to the Genesis block. This wouldn't be final proof (we could argue conspiracy theories forever on that point), but it would be a clear hurdle to pass.

So a person who claims to be Satoshi and has a chance to offer such proof, and specifically fails to do so - as is the case with Wright - can only mean two things:

1. He's not Satoshi and this is a scam.
2. He is Satoshi, but there is some reason, some motive, for not wanting to convince everyone he is Satoshi, at least not all at once.

I've been pondering if #2 is viable. It's hard to see the point of such a gambit. Perhaps to avoid rocking the market too suddenly? But that doesn't strike me as a big enough justification to dribble out the evidence second-hand via Gavin and Jon's word. So I'm sticking with some form of #1 for now.