I haven't seen anyone say outright that "Craig Wright is not Satoshi".
I have.
Certainly that's not what most people are saying. They're simply saying that it's highly unlikely that this guy is Satoshi, and I think that is a very reasonable conclusion based on the available evidence.
And I'm just saying that there isn't enough information to say that "it's highly unlikely that this guy is Satoshi". The only thing we can say is "it isn't proven yet" and "It's odd that Gavin would believe it if it isn't true". I really don't think that it can logically be said yet that it is likely, and I really don't think that it can logically be said yet that it isn't likely.