The bare-minimum price difference between AUR bought with ISK and AUR bought with ISK->USD->BTC is around 8%. This is simply the sum total of the high (5-%) credit card transfer fees, disadvantageous BTC sell offers on the cc-enabled exchanges (2+%) and the difference between the Icelandic banks' and VISA Iceland's ISK/USD exchange rate (1%).

Given all the hassle, this bare-mininum 8% premium is probably more like 15% or more. Indeed, the Icelandic market has sustained a +30% price pretty steadily over this initial week of business at ISX – as is indeed the case right now when AUR is at 35 ISK on ISX, and at the same time at 480b on Bittrex, which is exactly 30%.

However, the volume on ISX after its opening on 3 May has been as high or higher than on Bittrex, which begs the question of who drives whom.

Anyway, arbitrage ought to equalise the two to within around 15% over time, or until the capital controls in Iceland are lifted, at which time the difference should be within 1% (i.e. the difference between the banks' buy and sell rates for ISK/USD plus the small transfer costs).