Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Bitcoin IS basically DESTROYED
by
Cryddit
on 09/05/2016, 19:45:49 UTC
Actually, I worry more about what's going to happen when the Chinese economy falters.

The programs they put in place to recover from the 2008 crisis?  Still in place.  Government debt has doubled, and the rate of growth in government debt has tripled, while the Chinese economy has grown only 15% or so, over the last four years. 

Growth twice as fast as the rest of the world is entirely reasonable when a nation is rising in a single generation from ox farming and hand-picking crops, to first-world status.  But maintaining that growth rate is impossible once you've gotten close to caught up, and Chinese economic controls are still targeting (read: spending a buttload of money to prop up) a growth rate over twice the rate of the rest of the world. 

So, yeah, China is probably going to hit an economic readjustment.  If they do something, it will be painful to most Chinese and a drag on the world economy for a long time.  If not, they're headed for a debt collapse and possibly a Great Depression of their own.  I don't think it'll happen this year though; probably toward first quarter 2018?  Maybe?  Depends on what they do from now to then, but it's probably too late to avoid it entirely. 

I'm worried that a lot of Chinese will feel betrayed when the economic development of the last two decades grinds to what they're going to see as a sudden halt.  They'll likely look around for scapegoats to blame.  There may be ethnic violence, or they could possibly attack Japan, which would suck the US into it.