Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Thank at first my friend for getting my point the correct way and understood that I care for our friendship
Second, I would like to see a follow-up post please comparing your Sept. 2015 predictions and possibilities with the $25K-$250K and the reasons you believe in for the $25K-$250K ones as well.
I know this will take time and effort from you, thanks in advance and really so much appreciated, but as I always said, I always learn from you guys, especially from my dear friends, like you
Thank you for this discussion point.
I believe it is a good thought exercise to consider our own views of the future and price possibilities (in our own thinking), and surely such an exercise can be specific and at the same time demonstrate how our subjective feelings can materialize into somewhat evolving views of probabilities.
Heres the substance of what I predicted to you via PM in late September 2015.
Probably, the below is a decent snapshot of my opinion... [regarding] 10 years and $100K
5 years:
less than $200 < 5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 5-10% chance
$300 to $500 30-40% chance
$500 to $1000 30-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 12-18% chance
$5000+ about 5% chance
10 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 10-20% chance
$500 to $1000 20-25% chance
$1000 to $5000 15-20% chance
$5000 to $20,000 < 5% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 < 3% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 2% chance
Heres my current speculation, and I feel that my numbers have not changed too much. Of course, I am no expert, and I am kind of guessing off the seat of my pants and based on the totality of my current information and impression of circumstances regarding how the space has been developing:
5 years:
less than $200 < 2 % chance
$200 to $300 about 2-5% chance
$300 to $500 5-25% chance
$500 to $1000 25-40% chance
$1000 to $5000 8-30% chance
$5000+ about 8% chance
10 years:
less than $200 < 1.5 % chance
$200 to $300 about 1.5-3.5% chance
$300 to $500 3.5-15% chance
$500 to $1000 15-22% chance
$1000 to $5000 20-40% chance
$5000 to $20,000 5-15% chance
$20,000 to $50,000 3-10% chance
$50,000 to $100,000 < 3% chance
I would be interested to see how others plug in these kinds of predictions.
If bitcoin is still below 5000$ in 10 years - i totally dear to say 5 years
! - it has failed (game over). Disruptive technological innovations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation follow a well established pattern - by the spread among "average people", not in an academic manner. If Bitcoin, the internet solution to replace 3rd party trust, and bitcoin the token it uses as a societal tool as money (network security incentive, but forget that for a moment), which is obviously mostly a speculative asset tool today(!), fulfils the path of exponential growth* of technological instrument's advance in the past, it can not be valued below 5000$ of today's dollar worth in 2020. That would mean it does not follow the historical innovation's model.
Just think about the number of "users/adopters". In 2009, bitcoin had like 1-10?. In 2010, maybe a few hundred. In 2011, a few thousands, and so on, 10x-100x till around 2013-2014, when it seemingly slowed down from the 100x+, but, and a BIG but, folks with money and vision (both for "omg, the humanity!, and greed) started to invest in it - in the network architecture in itself, not in the token. From than on, since the infrastructure started to be laid down, bitcoin was "immune" to death. No investors would ever let it go down to zero after they have just paid n x 10 million dollars to lay the railroad. They would have or did (?) rather buy up all newly minted/quitting coins, just to keep their investment alive. That is one of the reasons, IMO that bitcoin can not go to zero, or to double digits anymore (>200$?), never. Period.
To be what it promises, and those things we can not imagine yet, bitcoin needs a LOT more "average Joe" users, " Joe" business users (small-medium enterprises). If the remaining 5-10 years can not draw these 100-1000x of today's users, than bitcoin will most likely fail, because of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations.
If we accept this path as an approximation - we should not necessarily - than from today's ~450 USD/BTC price we can calculate that a bitcoin can not be below 5000 USD/BTC in 10 years. The math does not compute, 100x-1000x users, new, untold/unimagined valuable usages must make the "token" units more valuable.
*Think about exponential growth. We already know how the math in epidemiology works out in a new pathogenic since the 1500's in an unimmunized populace, like the North American natives vs. European invaders (smallpox, the common cold). By the way, that is just many of the one reasons why the greatest medical/governmental frauds of the 20th century of HEP-C/HIV=AIDS(yes, i stand by it!!)/HPV cancer variants are hoaxes, logical fallacies, even by simple mathematical reasoning, and used only for controlling the populace by fear and selling overpriced pills...)