If you truly believe that, and I believe you do + I am not saying you are wrong, why are you then still publicly trading for a few bucks profit per bitcoin? Is it the rush you are getting when the price runs away from you in either direction? Are you hedging against your own bullish judgement? This seems like a dangerous strategy believing what you are saying is sincere.
Yes, I attempted to make my above highlighted statement to be within what I really believe, and I framed my statement general enough that it is reflective of what I believe at the moment to be within reasonable possibilities.
Contrary to what you seem to be asserting (or implying) bitebits,
I don't see my BTC trading strategy to be contrary to my view that BTC prices have decent probabilities of reaching $25k to $250k within 5-10 years.
Decent probabilities can mean a lot of things including beliefs of anything between a 10% chance and a 90% chance [...]
Somehow to me, bitebits, I get the impression from your above comment that you believe that in order for me to be consistent with my views, I should be buying more and more BTC and even leveraging more in order to buy BTC because the present value of such a view (if I really believe it) would seem to dictate that I invest more financial resources into BTC.
Really, I don't think so.
[...]
I hope that makes sense to clear up what seems to be a kind of inconsistency in my position from your point of view.
By the way, in a nut shell, what are you doing in terms of attempting to prepare your BTC holdings in a way that you believe is consistent with your view of BTC's future and in light of your own financial circumstances?
Thanks for trying to explain JJG, appreciated. Not sure if I fully understand or agree though.
According to you own logic, even with your lowest estimate of a 10% chance on your lowest estimate of $25k per bitcoin, you should not be selling any bitcoin under 2500$. But I am not judging or telling you what to do, just noticed the inconstancy. Psychological it might be hard to not trade when you watch the price closely and have bitcoins / fiat on an exchange. Like Warren Buffett recently said during the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting: "A full wallet is like a full bladder you may have the urge to pee it away very quickly".
My 'strategy' is simple since I have a certain percentage of my wealth invested in Bitcoin where I feel comfortable with. Don't care whether it's short term manipulated dollar value abruptly decreases or increases. Do care when I would lose bits in the trading process. When/if the dollar value of a single bitcoin gets >$2k I am probably forced to rebalance my portfolio, even though I share your believe that the future dollar value of a bitcoin is likely way higher.