Re: AntMiner S9 rampant speculation thread, have to be quick though
I would be willing to guess we are looking at 0.09W/GHs ATW efficiency, 14TH/s and around $1900.
I would love that, perhaps would even buy batch 3 or 4. Bitmain tends to improve power consumption by 30-40% with each generation. Going down by 70% (0.30W -> 0.09W) would surprise me.
Efficiency figure is pure speculation based on an exponential formula I worked up in Sept '14, but so far one of them has been relatively close to predict S5 and S7 efficiency. As for pricing, it's a complete shot in the dark. You never know with BMT...
I can't imagine they would change their form factor for this generation, after the success of the S5+ and S7.
Just thought I'd try to contribute something. Your model relies on a fixed 1 W/GHs which we know is not realistic, so I thought I'd try to make a model to predict future chip efficiency using past and current developments of both BitmainTech's and Avalon's chips, as they are 2 of the bigger players that have been around for a while. Please feel free to interject where you see any of my assumptions as unrealistic:
Both Exponential formulas come out somewhat closely, so I feel it could be useful to predict future technology as far as efficiency goes. We know there has to be a point of diminishing returns.
Both Exponential formulas come out somewhat closely, so I feel it could be useful to predict future technology as far as efficiency goes. We know there has to be a point of diminishing returns.
Interesting to revisit my post from this long back as an estimate to the S5, S7 and future Bitfury chip efficiency.
When the S5 was released, x=25 for Jan '15,
11.2e(-0.118)(25)=0.586 W/GHs
7.0376e(-0.112)(25)=0.428 W/GHs
When the S7 was released, x=32 for August '15:
11.2e(-0.118)(32)=0.257 W/GHs
7.0376e(-0.112)(32)=0.195 W/GHs
Let's say we see Bitfury chips by April '16, or x=40
11.2e(-0.118)(40)=0.0998 W/GHs
7.0376e(-0.112)(40)=0.0798 W/GHs
Could be on to something here, first formula seems to hold somewhat true at this time.