Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now
by
classicsucks
on 13/05/2016, 23:32:27 UTC
Basically in a halving situation, the economy is in a deflationary scenario.

This is only true if velocity remains static. If velocity drops as coin supply does, it can be inflationary. Velocity could drop due to hoarding. The question becomes "which is greater, the utility of the coins versus the speculative volume?" I don't have a good answer for that yet.

The miners will be trying to make up for their losses - the most logical thing to do is not to sell the coins for a profit, but to hoard them for later sale when the price goes up again. This limits the supply of BTC available, perhaps for a few months until the price adjusts. But there is always going to the same demand for BTC. When demand outweighs supply, the price will naturally go up.

Demand for BTC could and likely will change radically based governmental interventions, possible hard forks, and further predictable scams and security breaches at exchanges. You don't think somebody is trying to devise a way to seize bitcoins right now?