I would elaborate further roach, but I think MatTheCat summed it up pretty elegantly elsewhere:
You do know that MatTheCat, even by his own admissions, is the most failed trader on the entire forum, right? 9 times out of 10 whatever Mat says the opposite happens. I have an entire thread dedicated to the study of MatTheCat. It's like having someone step out of a clown car giving you advice on markets:
http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1455386