So probability is not the only thing that matters.
Sorry, but your wrong. Probability is all that matters, and regardless what you think or see in the short term does not matter, so your point is not valid. Regardless of whether your solo or pool mining, the def fee wont change hard math. Over time, If you solo mine 100 blocks, 1 block will be missed due to the dev fee on average. If your on the pool your hashrate will be shown 1% less on average.