Most critics did not say there is a "chance". They said with absolute certainty "it is a scam". Cedivad included: check his thread title.
These uninformed and misguided critics have been the root cause of most of the trolling and fights on this forum.
Look at my first point. For the info we had 2 hours ago, it was a certain scam. Now everything changed.
You were poorly informed, because multiple details apparently unknown to you indicated that Avalon was likely legit:
- history of the guys, long-term members of this community (ngzhang and yifu had made and sold fpga devices, I personally bought fpgas from yifu)
- very conservative and plausible power consumption (150 Mhash/Joule)
- old 110nm tech, easier to design at than 65nm
I replied to your points of concern, but you seem to have ignored or not seen them:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=139725.msg1489135#msg1489135I guess I am more interested in the psychology of this debate:
what could we have said differently that would have changed your mind, that perhaps Avalon was legit? I am sure this boils down to poor communication and sharing of information between forum members. I am trying to understand how the communication can be improved. Because if it can be improved, there would be a lot fewer debates and arguments on these forums, hence it would improve the quality of the forum as a whole (and I am really interested in improving it.)
Not sure if trolling me or what. I knew that, however BFL has possible numbers, an history as FPGA maker and yet to ship. bAsics, almost the same. The whole forum was sure that this was a scam, the FACT that we where told lies is enought to prove it: why the Chinese customers didn't get their units if the only problem what to pass Chinese customs? Do we really belive that, again? They have problems they don't wont to admit with this avalon. Full point.
The million dollar they will get tomorrow will most probably fix these problems.
I think that you are the uninformed.
Edit, yes, I readed your post at the time but didn't tought it was worth replying. Everyone belive what they want to belive, you are one of the guys that would have paid in btc even without Jeff receiving its unit. You cannot say that hey, they just started shipping to Chinese customers, you can't except them to already have them. Yes, not in 3 days, but what about 2 weeks? Seriously? Also, the lack of the video, how do you seriously justify it? It dosent make any sense. Sorry, I'm from my phone and don't have the time right now to answer properly. I hope to have made a few points anyway.