That single ASIC hashing on slush is a huge blow to BFL and their customers investors.
How so? [serious question]
It's sort of a "proof of concept" having Avalon deploy one working unit so far, which is why I'm largely holding judgement on this issue until more units are in the hands of customers. But I don't think BFL has much to worry about until Avalon takes the lead with orders. Avalon is just showed that they have a working product..so if BFL doesn't kick into gear and get units out the door soon, they're going to be in trouble.
Several reasons, some of which you just alluded to. Avalon is now in another league IMO as they're now an ASIC vendor and not a vaporware vendor that used to sell FPGAs. They've now definitively proven themselves to not be a scam. They've also proven beyond any reasonable doubt that they're capable of delivering what they said they could and on the schedule they said they would. BFL has failed to meet any of these criteria. I believe BFL is in trouble now, not just if/when they announce another delay. Meanwhile BTC continues to march north in price vs fiat and opportunity costs for those that sold BTC to pay for ASICs or paid directly for ASICs continue to climb.
A number of fair points made. I think we're roughly on the same page, though you seem to be able to put "thoughts on paper" a bit more efficiently than I do.
In any case, the next few weeks will either make or break BFL.