Yes they don't care about the first day price as they don't even hold a lot waves. They are absolutely not interested in the opening price of waves. Ergo they are not interested in what most of the participants of the ICO want, fast money like LISK.
Yes its probably hasty to assume the price will fall down to half of the ICO price. But don't forget a lot of people are not experienced in trading and don't act reasonable. Moreover for a third of all participants the ICO price is 20% lower as they received a first day bonus. So its reasonable to assume that the price will fall below ICO.
Why?
Because there is not demand for waves as everyone who wanted some waves already bought them.
@ATA Group,
First of all, you pretend to know the intentions of the ICO participants. Where do you know it? Is there a survey showing that the majority of the ICO money wants easy cash in the first days, or do you just assume it to be so? Secondly, you draw on the immaturity of the speculators here. But you should also take into account that this very immaturity could cause an increase in the price. Why? Because there is nowadays an immense hype in the ICOs in general, and you may see people talking about cashing out at 10x or so, which shows that there are a group of people who believe the price will go up that much. This we should attribute to the immaturity. And this is why the demand may grow, contrary to your assumption that whoever wants to hold Waves have already contributed to the ICO.
As for the fact that the base cost of the tokens is lower for the first-day participants, we also need to consider that those participants put their money 6 weeks before the launch. So for most of them 20% would not be the right spot to cash out, when you take into account the opportunity cost of their investments.
Best,
Jian
Jian just my prediction and this is yours. Lets keep it like this.