I guess you will know, whether you know what you are doing or not, but as I have discovered, the odds of betting against the MAs are greatly reduced compared with taking trend following setups. If you took a short at $541 on Finex for example, where do you set your stop loss behind? There is no market structure to work with, and if enough short positions build up around topping areas, FU moves are always likely. Indeed, that is what the FU candle up to $453 on Finex no doubt was.....just the exchange shaking shorters out of their positions, and I suppose the smart trader could place his Short Entry, precisely where he expects the exchange to shake shorters out.....but what happens if the move up isn't an FU move at all, but a break out? We have had 3 very violent impulse moves up, that nobody was quite prepared for, who is to say 'they' won't engineer a fourth?

Having a bias towards a correction here is one thing, but trying to short it is quite another....believe me....I am the absolute King of Shorting against the trend. ...

....and besides...if u got short at $541, didn't you take any profits as Finex dipped down into teens? I suspect the floor for Bitcoin will be put in here around $500. It is 'the Halving Pump'. Everyone knows Bitcoin is going to get pumped by the Chinese miners. I suspect that Bitcoiners and traders will be much more resilient in the face of downside than they normally would, and the Chinese Bitcoin cowboys, and other whales will be hanging around key support levels, putting in support from which to build the next phases of the pump......this just isn't a shorter's market at the moment.