Come June 14th, those users who invested probably about 10-50 btc will all dump their WAVES and profit about 100%. Lets say someone invested about 10btc on Waves so he now double up to 20btc after dumping. Come halving, his 20btc will also turned 40btc. That's about 300% return. Will he buy back WAVES? more than likely NO. seeing he already squeeze a lot of btc during the release. it may take a year before WAVES will ever recover just like how Lisk turned out.
But he may possibly buy RISE instead.
That is the craziest logic I have seen about Bitcoin Reward splitting. If someone has 20 BTC before the 25 to 12.5 BTC split, they will still have 20 BTC. They may or may not be valued higher.
Now if I have 1 BTC worth of Waves, it will still be 1 BTC worth of waves regardless of the Bitcoin split. It may be worth more or less depending on the price of Bitcoin since alts are priced against Bitcoin.