$32 was "the new paradigm", $2 was "dispair", $5 was return to the mean. We are now seeing a repeat of the same pattern.
I agree with you on these points, but where exactly do you see "first sell off" in the first bubble? Or the "return to normal"? Imho, any point you pick for these are quite arbitrary.
So, anyway, seems pretty obvious. We're in the bull trap/return to normal area.
I agree.
How are we in the bull trap/return to normal area if we haven't even had a significant sell-off in the new "bubble" ? Don't get me wrong, I think we will get another decent sell-off, and we have risen quite a bit, but I don't think we are there yet.
It's just like a fractal. The pattern will repeat itself in different scale. In short-term (1-2 year), the first bubble was a full cycle. In medium-term (3-5 year), it was just a bear trap. In long-term (6-10 year), it was just a glitch in the take off period.
+1, although the fundamentals need to stay good for this to happen of course.