I must have missed something here. My analysis is:
...
50/40 $/shareholder_share * 1 BTC / $20 --> 0.0625 BTC / shareholder_share
People are bidding 4.3 times this amount. Why?
Be careful with normalizing against USD values. At the time both ventures started the ratio was more like 1BTC@10USD. Thus an Avalon unit had the equivalent cost of 150 BTC, or about 3000 USD now.
Thus: 50 / 400 BTC / share = 0.125 BTC / share
Also, the cost for the increase in mining operations by the proposed factor 6 is included in the share price. So you're looking at up to 300 MH/s / share, which bumps the equivalent price to about 0.5 - 0.8 BTC / share.
I'd say 0.2 BTC / share is a bargain. 0.3 BTC / share is a good price.
But please do your own price discovery
