I'll give you a very open and libertarian bet: If IOTA hasn't achieved 'success' by within the next 2 months I am willing to pay you 100 BTC, if you're willing to pay me 100 BTC if indeed IOTA is a success by then. It's a very simple issue, if you honestly don't trust my vision and skills. Your move.
What metric would you use to measure 'success' ... marketcap, nodes, transactions, big deal $$, foundation $$ etc