I wanted to know your opinion on everything except that part - If satoshinonce accepted investments, is such a risk entirely eliminated?
Disclaimer: I am not a mining expert, so anyone please correct me if I am wrong here....
satoshinonce would not be fair for investors and that site is technically not even provably fair for the player.
For player: if satoshinonce is also a miner, they could specify block-nonces (last 1 or 2 digits only) in their mining software which makes the incoming transactions/bets lose (or at least whichever is best for them.) So even if they have 2% mining power, players would most likely lose 2% more often. That's why I think for the player it's better to have TX+VOUT+SECRET like Luckyb.it (and SD before.) Might be tough to change it since.. well.. the site is called "Satoshi
Nonce".
For investor: if satoshinonce is also a miner, they could adjust the mining software to only check nonces with 2 specific last digits and include some of those winning 98x transactions in it (and not even broadcast those transactions before finding the block!) Then if they find a correct block, they send it out including those winning transactions. It seems like a guaranteed way to win with no risk. So doesn't help investors much. Would be even worse for investors with TX id though obviously.
Also miners who like to attack/cheat satoshinonce can do this right now BTW. But I assume that adjusting the mining software to only use those specific nonces might take some work and I guess with the low max bet it's not worth it for them.
Ps, hope TrevorXavier doesn't mind we are going a bit off-topic here

It's still somewhat on the same topic of faulty provably fair implementations though (: