Cost of production is doubling in less than a month ... that will set the new floor for bitcoin price to the $840-960 range (at the minimum without difficulty increases) in the medium term.
Cost of production for a monetary good is the economic defence against counterfeiting. While gold is money, and sometimes attracts a monetary premium substantially above it's cost of production, for someone to produce gold "from nothing" they need to expend an equivalent amount of resources to the cost of production. Over long terms the price of the monetary good may be attracted to its cost of production but ultimately that is as cheap as you can acquire it for, as long as it is still desirable as a monetary good. For the same reason the lowest value of fiat paper money is the cost of the paper it is printed on and the ink, i.e. it's cost of production (about a few cents for a $100 bill).
While bitcoin is still valued as a monetary good, that can be transported in minutes across the internet as a final settlement for bearer instruments exchanged on a censorship-resistant network, it still needs to defend against counterfeiting. The cost of production defends against counterfeiting since this is as cheap as you can produce bitcoin. If bitcoin becomes more desirable for other reasons of its utility, such as store of value, medium of exchange (network effect increasing), etc., then it may easily attract a monetary good premium on top of the cost of production, but the cost of production has invariably set the floor for the lower bound on bitcoin prices, as long as it has remained a monetary good.
Bitcoin is still monetising.
Good read! I wonder how the following scenario plays out according to your theory:
- Cost of production: 100$
- Current bitcoin price: 100$
Then Bitcoin becomes more desirable for other reasons of it's utility:
- Cost of production: 100$
- Bitcoin price: 125$
Wouldn't the cost of production then quickly be rising to ~125$, since it is profitable again to buy and fire up more miners? Basically setting a new higher floor for the lower bound on bitcoin prices? Looks like a self-fulfilling prophecy.