Eventually, technological advances will lower the cost of resources required to mine Bitcoins. You are not addressing that with your math. I will post more detailed calculations later.
i will wait for your post about calculations.
i think its not happen when bitcoin halving come,i guess some miners quit from mine bitcoins or at least they think mine bitcoin no longer profitable. lets wish this is really happen.
I think the miners would not go for a halving of the year. reward is still promising. and many more that have not been mined bitcoin? I'm sure the miners are still eager to be bitcoin mining. at least not for halving this year dude