Too many variables

UK gonna vote in or out of the EU.. in 2 weeks
bitcoin halving in and month
US elections
Olympics (zika)

If the UK goes out of the EU... then BTC strengthens
Bitcoin block halving... should see correction over 3 months to about 800-900
US elections.. well if Trumps wins expect it to move around, Hillary Nah markets already used to crazy politicians
Olympics (zika) who knows hopefully there isnt a crazy outbreak or something

Personally I think BTC is more susceptible to market emotion than market fundamentals.

well at least the worst BTC can do is 0 unlike fiat which goes negative...