I think either of the options could happen, but I don't think those are the only two options possible. Anything can happen to Bitcoin, and it's often the unexpected that happens rather than one of a few options people work out. Few people predicted the fall to $150, and I don't think many future predictions will be right either.
$150 seems to be impossible now, as price will rise from now and it will never go back to that low level, and even if it falls maximum it will be around $450 nothing below that.